The National Hockey League continues to delve into analytics. While some teams are eager to incorporate analytics, there still are many detractors. Teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs, Edmonton Oilers, and New Jersey Devils all hired members of the analytics community for the 2014-2015 season, which launched the official incorporation of analytics in front offices, driving the NHL towards a new era of hockey analysis. Toronto, for example, hired analytics expert Kyle Dubas as their Assistant General Manager, while Edmonton hired Tyler Dellow as an Analytics Consultant.
Recently, the Arizona Coyotes furthered the shift to analytics by promoting their 26-year-old Assistant General Manager John Chayka to General Manager, making him the youngest general manager in North American major professional sports history. Prior to working with the Coyotes, Chayka was the co-founder of the hockey analytics firm Stathletes Inc., a program that statistically analyzed NHL players and quantified their play.
Coyotes President Anthony LeBlanc explained why Chayka, who is much less experienced than the other general managers in the NHL, was promoted: “Ultimately, it’s his smarts. You spend five minutes with him and you realize this is really an intelligent guy. The one thing: He gets painted with this analytics brush. There’s no question that analytics is a big part of what he understands. It’s a big part of what we’re looking at, but it’s a small part of what John Chayka is. He just understands the game at a level that is uncommon for someone twice his age.”
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Bringing in someone with a unique background ultimately could transform the role of a general manager. As noted by LeBlanc, without an outsider’s voice, there is less of a chance for development and modernization. Chayka has since been assessing the Coyotes current situation in order to visualize and formulate the future for the team, while adjusting to his new role as general manager. He explained his analytical approach, saying “I think it helps you get a more thorough look and I think our duty as managers to our ownership group is to be as thorough as possible so analytics is a way of increasing thoroughness. The numbers, for me, sometimes they might be right, sometimes they might be wrong, but they’re honest. They don’t change their view, they tell you what you think and I guess if they were a person that would be how I feel about them.”
Along with the Coyotes, the Florida Panthers have rebranded themselves to include a more analytical approach to hockey. General Manager Dale Tallon became the President of Hockey Operations, while Tim Rowe took over his former position as General Manager. In 2014, the Panthers hired Dr. Brian MacDonald as the Director of Hockey Analytics. This summer, the Panthers added Cam Lawrence and Josh Weissbock to that department. Scout Peter Mahovlich has been shifted to Special Advisor to Ownership, with Richard Pollock replacing him as a scout. Neither Pollock nor Weissbock have the traditional background for a front office position; instead, they excel in analytics.
Already, the renovated front office of the Florida Panthers has executed a trade exemplifying their new focus on analytics in trading 24 year-old defenseman Erik Gudbranson and a fifth-round draft pick to the Vancouver Canucks for 19 year-old center Jared McCann, a second-round pick, and a fourth-round pick. Gudbranson, at 6’5 and 220-pounds, fits the role of a classic defenseman. However, that role is basically the opposite of what advanced statistics point to as an ideal defenseman.
But, hey, at least he’s a proven, 6’5″, 24-year old defenseman.. pic.twitter.com/xnrpylnzHg
— ShanaPlan Debate (@ShanaplanDebate) May 26, 2016
Analytics tend to favor a puck-moving defenseman that can break out of their zone while limiting shots against. That approach would make Gudbranson a third-pair defenseman since the team generated a low number of shots when he was on the ice, plus he did not limit shot generation enough against the opposition. The stay-at-home defenseman, like Niklas Hjalmarsson of the Chicago Blackhawks, can be extremely successful because they excel in their role of limiting shot generation and scoring chances, even if the player is not particularly offensive. Other stay-at-home defenseman, though, appear successful because they often block shots and hit but in fact do not limit shots or goals, nor do they protect high danger areas of the ice. A more traditional approach may favor a bigger, more physical stay-at-home defenseman like Gudbranson.
Jared McCann, on the other hand, is a young two-way center with potential. His possession on a team as dismal as the Canucks last season was promising, plus his contract is cap-favorable at $894,000 for the next two seasons.
Vancouver Canucks General Manager Jim Benning, in reflecting on his time as Assistant General Manager for the Boston Bruins, made his opinion on analytics clear after this trade: “We won a Stanley Cup in Boston and we didn’t use analytics.” Unbeknownst to Benning, the 2011 Stanley Cup Champion Bruins were in fact an impressive team from an analytics perspective.
While the team may not have been assembled with analytics in mind, the team’s possession numbers alone exemplified how analytically correct it was. Advanced statistics quantify what the players did, but not how to achieve that, which is why teams assemble an analytics department to measure what the players did and to understand what plays were effective. Although the 2011 Bruins did not “use analytics” to be successful, the numbers speak for themselves. Now that teams have this information so readily available, the idea is not necessarily to “use analytics,” but to consider the analytics to help build the best team possible and stay competitive in the evolving NHL.
The Pittsburgh Penguins 2016 Stanley Cup victory exemplifies just why teams should be more conscious of analytics. Even though past Stanley Cup wins, including the Chicago Blackhawks’ three championships and the Los Angeles Kings’ two, showed how successful a team could be with high possession numbers, for whatever reason there are still many detractors like Benning. Other narratives have been offered to try to explain why the Kings and Blackhawks have been so successful, like the experience of the teams or physicality of the players. However, it’s hard to set aside such significant and consistent statistical evidence.
General Manager Jim Rutherford revitalized the Pittsburgh Penguins with not only a coaching change in the promotion of Mike Sullivan, but by overhauling the team’s depth, likely with the help of Analytics Consultant and Co-Founder of War on Ice Sam Ventura. Rather than having hard-nosed, physical players in the bottom six like Maxim Lapierre, Rutherford looked to players like Nick Bonino, Carl Hagelin, Phil Kessel, Bryan Rust, and Conor Sheary to play behind Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Instead of the bottom six, which for many teams includes a type of grinding line, the Penguins utilized a much quicker, puck moving, high-possession style for more than just their top line. The Penguins were able to maintain offensive puck possession thanks to puck-moving defenseman like Kris Letang and Trevor Daley, rather than relying on a stay-at-home, shot blocking, physical defenseman, such as Roman Polak of the Sharks.
Additionally, the Penguins proved that it was possible to win without stressing fighting and blocked shots. In fact, the Penguins only had nine fights during the entire 2015-2016 season, and were only ranked 22nd in blocked shots.
Analytics indicated that Pittsburgh was a relentless opponent. There were other narratives, like Matt Murray’s impressive goaltending and the success of the Hagelin, Bonino, and Kessel combination, but those narratives were supported by the fact that the Penguins played a style that led them to have offensive pressure and high possession.
Not only were the Penguins worthy of the Stanley Cup finals based on analytics alone, but the San Jose Sharks had remarkable possession as well. In the second half of the season, the Penguins’ and Sharks’ possession statistics flourished, with the Penguins finishing second in possession while the Sharks finished third. So while many may say that analytics coincidentally highlight successful teams, others should recognize that it is much more than a coincidence that possessing the puck more gives a team a greater opportunity to put the puck in the net… and win games.
These were the NHL’s top possession teams in the second half of the season. Both these teams deserve to be in final. pic.twitter.com/4XQVNI6xQh
— James Mirtle (@mirtle) May 30, 2016
If the Los Angeles Kings’ and Blackhawks’ Stanley Cup victories did not indicate how useful analytics can be, the Pittsburgh Penguins’ win most certainly did. NHL teams would be wise to take note, since any additional tool to help a team should be employed.
Even Randy Carlyle, recent Head Coach re-hire of the Anaheim Ducks discussed using analytics, “As far as the analytics issue – that was never ever an issue from my perspective. I feel there’s a place for analytics in the game. It’s a place for us as a hockey department, as a coaching staff, to decide what analytics you want to use. There are different statistics made available to you some people find important. Analytics in my name is just an expanded view of stats. It’s proven there are positives that come from it and I think that I’ve never been against using analytics and the people in Toronto will tell you that.” While with Toronto Carlyle’s team under-utilized analytics, so regardless of whether he changed his mind or the Ducks gave him the opportunity to use them unlike the Leafs, it shows the openness of some coaches who did not employ analytics in the past.
Analytics have infiltrated all aspects of hockey, with endorsements from the NHL itself in the form of a database of advanced statistics. Now it is up to the rest of the NHL to catch up with those teams already leading in analytics––whether it is used to study possession, zones face-offs are won, shot generation, high/low danger scoring chances, or just looking at prospects to draft. Statistics do not replace the eye-test, but are a supplementary way to study hockey. Analytics have certainly proven their efficiency in quantifying play. Teams just have to adapt by modifying how play is studied.