First thing’s first, the National Football League is in a class of its own and cannot be viewed through the same lenses as the NBA, MLB, or NHL. Unlike the aforementioned, the NFL is not a professional sports league; but a cultural empire that dominates the nation’s consciousness for six months a year.
It is an empire that was built on television ratings.
So after nearly a half of an NFL season’s worth of Thursday Night Football games produced less than impressive ratings on the NFL Network, the Wall Street Journal is reporting that the NFL has begun to explore the idea of expanding Thursday Night Football to an online media outlet such as Google or Netflix.
The ratings rich history of the NFL is well documented. The first ever Monday Night Football game televised in 1970 captured 33% of the national viewing audience. Fox grew into the national network it is today by using live NFL programming to promote their stations assets. And the two most watched events in U.S. television history are the 2012 and 2010 Super Bowls. After establishing a ratings tradition this impressive, it’s no wonder that the league is somewhat disappointed with the current season’s TNF’s average household rating of 5.1 (which equates to 8.1 million viewers a week).
Most cable networks would be ecstatic with competitive numbers like these on a weekly basis, but we’re talking about the NFL here…and the goal is not to compete, but to dominate. Although these numbers are solid increases from last year, prime time football games on Thursday night are not dominating the TV landscape as originally expected. To combat this, the NFL has begun to think that if they can’t reign supreme over Thursday night on traditional TV, then they might consider moving on to the next best thing.
In an effort to generate greater interest in TNF and expand the NFL media market, the league is considering taking a 2nd game away from the Sunday schedule, bumping it up to Thursday, and offering the rights to that game to an internet media outlet such Google or Netflix. Most online and alternative media experts will tell you that “content is king”. Thus, should Google or Netflix be fortunate enough to strike a deal with the NFL, it could be the type of arrangement that pays off 10-fold.
Netflix knows this better than anyone. Since 2009 the company has grown in subscribers from less than 10 million to 36 million as of March 2013. Much of that growth was due to the company’s agreements with networks like AMC, Starz, and ESPN to acquire a serious upgrade in quality content that included the syndication of hit series like Breaking Bad and ESPN 30 for 30 Documentaries.
Netflix took this a step further by investing in original programming with series like House of Cards and Hemlock Grove which turned the service into a must-have for television junkies due to content that could be found nowhere else. Adding live NFL Football to the mix would be pouring gasoline on the fire.
Not only is it a safe bet that if you build it (NFL programming), they will come (viewers). But the advertising revenue that had previously been unavailable to Netflix due to their no commercials programming structure would now be accessible because of sponsorship agreements already set in place by the NFL.
Google, because of their stretch Armstrong like reach into everything internet-related, is in an even better position to capitalize on the NFL’s new interest. With smart TVs and streaming devices on the rise, live NFL games could make these luxury items a must own in the homes of every sports fan.
Even more exciting than the prospect of Thursday Night Football, Google could be close to earning a seat at the table on Sunday afternoons as well. Forbes is reporting that Google is a lead candidate to acquire the NFL Sunday Ticket package from DirecTV when the contract expires after 2014. A fresh slate of weekly NFL games would thrust Google’s Chromecast into living rooms of NFL addicted fans while benefitting from the easy transition of over 2 million current subscribers to the package.
Furthermore, it would keep Google one step ahead of competitors like Apple and Microsoft who’d certainly vie for the chance to have some skin in the NFL broadcasting game.
“If you can’t improve, expand.”
That’s what the PowerPoint title page should read whenever the league office plans to roll out the Google/Netflix idea to the decision making powers that be. Thursday Night Football games this season have been awful. No matter how much buzz the NFL is able to create, there is no escaping the fact that forcing teams to play a primetime game on 3 days rest is going to result in a lesser product. If there is any one reason for the ratings dip when it comes to Thursday, that is likely it.
Thursday games are decidedly sloppier, less fluid, and less suspenseful than those played on Sunday as players have had less time to prepare for this week’s opponent and recover from the last. Couple that with the facts that after the networks pick and choose the games they want to air, the NFL is left with mere scraps as far as compelling matchups to showcase on Thursday nights.
Very few games on the TNF schedule are able to conjure true national interest and four of the six games to this point were won by 10 or more points, suggesting that the contests are rarely close battles.
If the NFL were to strike a deal with an internet media powerhouse, at least they would be able to expand on a product that just might be the one weak link in the chain of NFL programming.
An agreement with Google or Netflix wouldn’t help much by way of ratings, but it would grant the NFL an exclusive space within the internet community, a community that craves action, violence, drama, celebrities, controversy, and above all content. If a deal is struck, expect the NFL to do what empires do. Dominate new, foreign lands.