How this works: These forecasts are based on 100,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Elo ratings — which power the pure Elo forecast — are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. Our CARMELO forecast doesn’t account for wins and losses; it is based […]
Build An NBA Contender With Our Roster-Shuffling MachineMove players around and make “trades” to change FiveThirtyEight’s NBA predictions. More NBA:2020-21 NBA predictionsOur RAPTOR player ratings By Ryan Best and Jay Boice How would adding a superstar change your favorite team’s title chances? Could a specific role player be the missing piece for a certain squad? […]
When the 2022-23 NBA season begins next week, our RAPTOR prediction model sees a league with a field of title contenders more wide-open than at any time in recent history. Philadelphia 76ers president Daryl Morey famously once said that any team with at least a 5 percent chance of winning the championship should be all-in […]
Ever since we introduced a depth charts-based method for keeping track of NBA rosters in our NBA forecast model, one of its biggest recurring criticisms — from those outside the ranks of Boston Celtics haters, that is — has been that the playing-time projections are just off for certain teams and players. That’s fair: Though […]
Even by the standards of a career filled with beefs, Denny Hamlin’s 2022 season has been particularly drama-filled. He’s feuded with multiple drivers, was ordered to undergo sensitivity training in April for retweeting a racist meme, became the first racer since 1960 to have a win taken away during a post-race inspection in July and, […]