Sports – FiveThirtyEight — RAPTOR RSS

How this works: These forecasts are based on 100,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Elo ratings — which power the pure Elo forecast — are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. Our CARMELO forecast doesn’t account for wins and losses; it is based […]

Welcome to the 2021-22 NBA season, folks! And welcome back to FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast, which is based on our RAPTOR player ratings. Before we get into the results of this year’s model and how our forecast sees the battle to dethrone the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks playing out, let’s quickly address a few of the […]

Build An NBA Contender With Our Roster-Shuffling MachineMove players around and make “trades” to change FiveThirtyEight’s NBA predictions. More NBA:2020-21 NBA predictionsOur RAPTOR player ratings By Ryan Best and Jay Boice How would adding a superstar change your favorite team’s title chances? Could a specific role player be the missing piece for a certain squad? […]

Our projection system identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like.