Having seen their title chances fade, experimentation is evidently the order of the day for Wales when they face a forlorn Italy on Sunday.
Warren Gatland has made 10 changes, with the emphasis no doubt on attack, after naming an exciting team which includes a back three of George North, Liam Williams and Steff Evans.
The back-row is also athletic and could cause the visitors significant problems should they gel. James Davies – finally rewarded for his regional form at the Scarlets – is a particularly interesting addition, while Justin Tipuric and captain for the day Taulupe Faletau complete the trio.
Although a question mark will inevitably be asked over whether the Tipuric-Davies axis is too lightweight, it is hard to see the visitors getting too much traction in any area of the game.
Sebastian Negri has been the Azzurri’s standout individual and was exceptional against France, but few others have impressed and boss Conor O’Shea needs to find more players akin to the quality of the blindside if they are to challenge Europe’s elite.
Italy used to have such an imposing pack, with their scrum a reliable weapon, but even that has now dissipated having lost the set-piece battle in the opening three rounds. Without that platform, Matteo Minozzi, Tommaso Benvenuti and Mattia Bellini, who have all shown glimpses at the highest level, have seen their chances limited.
O’Shea’s only hope seems to be complacency and potentially a lack of cohesiveness in the Welsh ranks, but the hosts should be motivated after the frustrations of the previous couple of matches.
Gatland’s men have played some excellent rugby in this year’s championship, thrashing Scotland and causing both England and Ireland problems.
While Wales’ opponents in rounds two and three deserved their victories, the Cardiff-based outfit have displayed an ability to create opportunities and score tries; something not always associated with the team over the past few years.
The supporters will therefore expect the side to play with the same verve and record a comfortable victory, despite the numerous alterations. Depth has been an issue for the Welsh and rotating the squad has previously resulted in them being challenged by tier two nations, but no such issues should arise on Sunday.
Wales are simply too strong, have not lost to Italy since the controversial 23-20 defeat in Rome in 2007 and have played well so far in this tournament. The less said about the visitors’ efforts the better, however. They were at least competitive in the first half in France but it will be another long afternoon this weekend.
Players to watch
For Wales: Warren Gatland does not lack for quality opensides and it will be exciting to see how Scarlets flanker James Davies goes on debut. It is thoroughly deserved for the back-rower, who has been in exceptional form for his region over recent years. Quick around the park, superb at the breakdown and surprisingly powerful in the loose – given his smaller stature – Davies should have no problems in adapting to international rugby.
For Italy: He’s not starting and he may not get too much game time, but plenty is expected of Giovanni Licata. The back-rower, who can play either blindside or number eight, was outstanding for Italy’s U20 side and has made a seamless transition into senior rugby with Zebre. Not too long is left in the career of Sergio Parisse and Licata could be the player to take over from the Stade Francais man at the back of the scrum.
Head-to-head: It will be a contrast in styles when Justin Tipuric and Sebastian Negri clash on Sunday. Tipuric has been moved to blindside following the inclusion of James Davies and it will interesting to see how they fare against the bigger Negri and Maxime Mbanda. The former, in particular, has been excellent for the Azzurri and Conor O’Shea will hope that his destructive carrying can garner some momentum. Tipuric is a talented footballer, however, and should Italy fail to cut off the supply to the outside channels then the Ospreys back-rower will thrive.
Previous results:
2017: Wales won 33-7 in Rome
2016: Wales won 67-14 in Cardiff
2015: Wales won 23-19 in Cardiff
2015: Wales won 61-20 in Rome
2014: Wales won 23-15 in Cardiff
2013: Wales won 26-9 in Rome
2012: Wales won 24-3 in Cardiff
2011: Wales won 24-16 in Rome
2010: Wales won 33-10 in Wales
2009: Wales won 20-15 in Rome
Prediction: Even accounting for the changes, which could potentially disrupt the hosts, they should have far too much for Italy. Wales by 30
The teams:
Wales: 15 Liam Williams, 14 George North, 13 Owen Watkin, 12 Hadleigh Parkes, 11 Steff Evans, 10 Gareth Anscombe, 9 Gareth Davies, 8 Taulupe Faletau (c), 7 James Davies, 6 Justin Tipuric, 5 Bradley Davies, 4 Cory Hill, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Elliot Dee, 1 Nicky Smith
Replacements: 16 Ken Owens, 17 Rob Evans, 18 Samson Lee, 19 Seb Davies, 20 Ellis Jenkins, 21 Aled Davies, 22 Rhys Patchell, 23 Leigh Halfpenny
Italy: 15 Matteo Minozzi, 14 Tommaso Benvenuti, 13 Giulio Bisegni, 12 Tommaso Castello, 11 Mattia Bellini, 10 Tommaso Allan, 9 Marcello Violi, 8 Sergio Parisse (c), 7 Maxime Mbanda, 6 Sebastian Negri, 5 Dean Budd, 4 Alessandro Zanni, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Leonardo Ghiraldini, 1 Andrea Lovotti
Replacements: 16 Oliviero Fabiani, 17 Nicola Quaglio, 18 Tiziano Pasquali, 19 Federico Ruzza, 20 Giovanni Licata, 21 Guglielmo Palazzani, 22 Carlo Canna, 23 Jayden Hayward
Date: Sunday, March 11
Venue: Principality Stadium
Kick-off: 15:00 GMT
Referee: Jérôme Garcès (France)
Assistant referees: Pascal Gaüzère (France), Andrew Brace (Ireland)
TMO: Marius Jonker (South Africa)
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