It is win or bust for the Waratahs when they make the trip over the Tasman this Saturday to take on the Chiefs in Super Rugby.
Only a miracle at this point will see Daryl Gibson’s side catch the Brumbies at the top of the Australian Conference, with the Waratahs trailing by nine points going into Round 15.
With the wildcard places in the Australasian Group firmly taken up by the New Zealand franchises, including the Chiefs, only topping the Australian Conference would guarantee a post-season berth for the ‘Tahs. And you have to admit based on some of their performances so far this year, it looks very unlikely.
That said, the Waratahs hold an excellent recent record over the Chiefs, having not tasted defeat since 2012.
They have also undoubtedly been a better side with Bernard Foley controlling things from fly-half, although he loses his half-back partner Nick Phipps this week, with the taller, try-scoring Jake Gordon stepping in.
Just three points meanwhile separate the Hurricanes, Highlanders and Chiefs, but coach Dave Rennie will have been frustrated to have only come away with a draw from last week’s meeting with the Blues, which came in testing conditions.
As things stand the Chiefs are on the road to Ellis Park in the quarter-finals to take on the dangerous Lions, and with a potentially easier draw still within grasp a strong outing will be expected.
At close to full strength save for the absence of Charlie Ngatai, Saturday will also be an occasion to celebrate when Stephen Donald makes his 100th appearance at the age of 33.
Rennie paid tribute to ‘Beaver’ this week, saying: “Stephen Donald’s already a Chiefs legend.
“Adored by his teammates and fans alike, he is a special and passionate Chiefs man who has had a prolific on-field career.”
The last time the teams met: Back in 2016 a commanding 45-25 win for the Waratahs enabled them to tighten their grip on top spot in the Australian Conference. Israel Folau, wearing 13, and Michael Hooper each grabbed two tries in a six-try demolition in Sydney, with youngsters Andrew Kellaway and Jack Dempsey getting in on the act. The Chiefs also scored four tries, through Seta Tamanivalu, Aaron Cruden, Nathan Harris and Augustine Pulu, but the boot of Bernard Foley proved to be the difference as he kicked six conversions and a penalty.
Players to watch: The Lions have landed and that will have pricked up the ears of Sam Cane, the Chiefs co-captain who in a few weeks time is expected to be lining up for the All Blacks. Combative as ever in the back row, whether Steve Hansen opts for Cane or Ardie Savea is still an open question. A good outing here wouldn’t do his cause any harm.
Quietly impressing meanwhile in recent weeks for the Waratahs has been Cameron Clark, the former Australia Sevens speedster who in the absence of Rob Horne has made the 11 shirt his own. Unsurprisingly fast, Clark has been heavily involved in the Waratahs’ attack and while his rise to the top has been quick, he has more than earned his shot.
Team news: Chiefs head coach Dave Rennie has made just two changes to the starting lineup. The changes see Stephen Donald don jersey number 12 for his 100th match and speedster Toni Pulu start on the right wing. Of note in the reserves is the inclusion of 22-year-old Bay of Plenty hooker Liam Polwart. The former New Zealand Under-20s representative is in line to make his Super Rugby debut off the bench.
Waratahs coach Daryl Gibson has made one change to his starting lineup. Scrum-half Nick Phipps has been ruled out with an ankle injury while Jack Dempsey, who was named this week in the Wallaby squad, has moved on to the reserves bench in a six/two split of forwards and backs. Jake Gordon will now start at scrum-half with Matt Lucas joining the team in Auckland on Thursday and centre Irae Simone moves out of the matchday squad.
Form: The Waratahs have won six of the last seven meetings between these sides including each of the last three in a row. The Waratahs’ six victories in that run have come by an average margin of 13 points, including a 27-point win in Waikato in 2010, the Tahs’ biggest win in New Zealand, and the Chiefs third heaviest home defeat.
Despite losing the last time the Chiefs hosted the Waratahs, they’ve won four of their last six home games against the New South Wales side and haven’t lost consecutive home matches against them since 2002. The Chiefs lost their last home game (v Crusaders), but haven’t lost back-to-back home matches in a single season since 2011. The Waratahs have lost their last four games in New Zealand, three of those defeats coming by 10 points.
Previous results:
2016: Waratahs won 45-25 in Sydney
2014: Waratahs won 33-17 in New Plymouth
2013: Waratahs won 25-20 in Sydney
2012: Chiefs won 30-13 in Hamilton
2011: Waratahs won 23-16 in Sydney
2010: Waratahs won 46-19 in Hamilton
2009: Waratahs won 11-7 in Sydney
2008: Chiefs won 20-17 in Hamilton
Prediction: A backlash from the Chiefs and the end of the Waratahs’ recent streak is expected. Chiefs by 12.
The teams:
Chiefs: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Toni Pulu, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Stephen Donald, 11 James Lowe, 10 Aaron Cruden (cc), 9 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 8 Liam Messam, 7 Sam Cane (cc), 6 Mitchell Brown, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Dominic Bird, 3 Nepo Laulala, 2 Nathan Harris, 1 Kane Hames
Replacements: 16 Liam Polwart, 17 Siegfried Fisi’ihoi, 18 Atu Moli, 19 Taleni Seu, 20 Mitchell Karpik, 21 Jonathan Taumateine, 22 Tim Nanai-Williams, 23 Solomon Alaimalo
Waratahs: 15 Israel Folau, 14 Taqele Naiyaravoro, 13 Rob Horne, 12 David Horwitz, 11 Cameron Clark, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Jake Gordon, 8 Michael Wells, 7 Michael Hooper (c), 6 Ned Hanigan, 5 Will Skelton, 4 Dean Mumm, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Tolu Latu, 1 Tom Robertson
Replacements: 16 Damien Fitzpatrick, 17 Paddy Ryan, 18 Angus Taavao, 19 David McDuling, 20 Jed Holloway, 21 Jack Dempsey, 22 Matt Lucas, 23 Bryce Hegarty
Date: Saturday, June 3
Venue: FMG Stadium, Hamilton
Kick-off: 17:05 local (05:05 GMT)
Referee: Paul Williams
Assistant Referees: Richard Kelly, Mike Lash
TMO: Ben Skeen
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