We are now just days away from the European Champions Cup semi-finals and Saracens have been installed as favourites to retain their crown. It is an extremely competitive field, also featuring heavyweights Clermont, Munster and Leinster, but the bookmakers are convinced Saracens can do it once again.
Sarries beat Northampton and Wasps in last season’s knockout stages to earn a final meeting with Racing 92, the conquerors of Leicester and Toulon. It was a pretty miserable final, played out amid stormy conditions, and no tries were scored, but Saracens were much the stronger team and won 21-9. In doing so they became the first team to win all their games en route to winning the competition.
They have been similarly dominant this time around: although they do not have a 100% record, their five wins and one draw in the group stage was the best record of any team in the competition. However, the qualified as third seeds behind Clermont, who were two points ahead, and Munster, who had a marginally better points difference. It has not stopped them breezing through to the semis, beating Glasgow Warriors 38-13 in the quarter-final stage.
Sarries now have to contend with a Munster team full of confidence after thrashing Toulouse 41-16. It promises to be a closely fought semi-final, but the bookies are favouring Saracens. Review Bet365 odds before you make your selection, and you will see that Saracens are 15/8 to win the tournament, then Clermont at 12/5, Munster on 11/4 and Leinster at 4/1. In the semis, Clermont are quite heavy favourites to beat Leinster, at 8/13 compared to Leinster’s 11/8. The semi-final between Saracens and Munster is expected to be closer: Sarries are 8/11 favourites, with Munster at 6/5. At those odds, most of the action is going on Munster, although the lines are not drifting in either direction.
Munster are just behind Leinster in the Guinness Pro 12 Championship and in excellent form at present, having won five of their last six. Saracens have also won five of their last six, and are closing the gap on Aviva Premiership leaders Wasps and Exeter. The last time these two met Saracens ran out 33-10 winners, but that was in 2015 and much has changed since then.
Perhaps the greatest handicap is that Saracens are the away team thanks to Munster sneaking ahead in the seeding for the knockout stage of the tournament. They will face a cauldron of animosity in Dublin, not long after the England national team’s remarkable winning run was stopped by Ireland. Wasps were also beaten convincingly by Leinster on the Emerald Isle, so English teams have not been faring well there at all of late. It is made all the more poignant by the tragic death of Munster head coach Anthony Foley in October, which has led to a wave of emotion carrying Munster into their games as they seek to honour his memory with a triumph here.
Saracens director of rugby Mark McCall said: “I don’t think our players realise what is coming. It’s important they do by the time we get there. I think it’s going to be one of the most special atmospheres anyone has ever played in. There is going to be an emotional element to it, and we must make sure we are ready for that and can cope with that. It’s going to be a very, very special occasion to be part of, but that’s not enough for us, we want to keep on going in this competition.”
It promises to be a thrilling clash, and betting public opinion is clearly in favour of Munster, given their excellent form, their sense of purpose and their attractive odds. But if anyone can break the English hoodoo in Ireland, it’s the all-conquering Saracens team, who have bags of talent and better strength in depth than Munster, so the odds on Saracens actually look pretty tempting.
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