Arsenal have 1.2 per cent chance of overcoming Bayern Munich in Champions League last-16 but Barcelona have no chance of beating Paris Saint-Germain

Mar 04, 2017

ARSENAL have a 1.2 per cent chance of making the Champions League quarter-finals, while Leicester’s chances hang in the balance, according to a Uefa study.

Europe’s governing body has looked at every single identical scoreline from all competitions in the continent’s history.

Arsenal have just 1.2 per cent chance of overcoming Bayern, according to Uefa study

Uefa looked at first leg results from every first leg in the European Cup/Champions League, Uefa Cup/Europa League and Cup Winners’ Cup.

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Arsenal need a miracle to overcome Bayern Munich, having lost 5-1 in Germany.

However, they can take heart from the knowledge it has been done before.

Real Madrid overcame Borussia Monchengladbach 4-0, having been beaten by that scoreline in the first leg in the 1985-86 Uefa Cup third round.

Paris Saint-Germain celebrate after incredible 4-0 win over Barcelona

Jamie Vardy's goal means Leicester have just a little under 50 per cent chance — Jamie Vardy’s goal means Leicester have just a little under 50 per cent chance

Juventus' 2-0 victory at Porto gives them a 97.3 per chance of success — Juventus’ 2-0 victory at Porto gives them a 97.3 per chance of success

Barcelona, though, would have to make history if they are to overcome Paris Saint-Germain.

The Ligue 1 side won 4-0 at the Parc des Princes and NO team has ever overturned that deficit.

Going by past results in European competition, Leicester’s clash with Sevilla is the most finely balanced.

Atletico Madrid are in a brilliant position, after beating Bayer Leverkusen 4-2

Uefa’s study gives the Foxes 48.9 per cent, with the La Liga side just slight favourites with 51.1 per cent after a 2-1 win for the Spaniards.

Manchester City are favourites to finish the job in Monaco after their epic clash at Etihad — but only just.

They have a 60 per cent chance to the French side’s 40.

Real Madrid's third goal against Napoli has given them massive advantage — Real Madrid’s third goal against Napoli has given them massive advantage

Though, the possibility of another match just as incredible has not been looked into.

Benfica’s 1-0 victory over Borussia Dortmund means that tie is also in the balance — the Portuguese side have better chance of qualifying, if history is anything to go by.

Uefa state that 59.6 per cent of sides who win the first leg by that scoreline triumph in the tie overall.

Benfica beat Borussia Dortmund 1-0 in first leg, to keep tie in balance

Manchester City overcame Monaco 5-3 in epic to take massive advantage to France

Real Madrid beat Napoli 3-1 to take a healthy lead to Italy, although the study makes them heavy favourites to win the tie, with a 77.2 per cent chance of success.

After PSG, Juventus are the next most likely to progress from their tie, having beaten Porto 2-0 away from home.

The Serie A leaders have a 97.3 per cent chance of success — which is marginally more than Atletico Madrid at 96.6 per cent, after they beat Bayer Leverkusen 4-2 in Germany.

Tags: Champions League Football

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